[SMM Chrome Daily Review] Ferrochrome costs and demand provide dual support; chrome ore prices are expected to rise

On August 14, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 7,900-8,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, it was 7,900-8,100 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, the quoted price was 8,100-8,250 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in South Africa, the quoted price was 7,800-8,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content); and in Kazakhstan, the quoted price was 8,800-9,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content), with some prices rising by 50 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM from the previous trading day.

Within the day, the quoted price of ferrochrome in south China rose slightly by 50 yuan/mt (50% metal content), while the price in north China remained stable. Affected by the high costs and favorable demand, ferrochrome producers maintained a firm stance on prices and held optimistic expectations for the future market. The sixth round of coke price increases was about to be implemented, and the spot price of chrome ore rose slowly at the same time. The smelting cost of high-carbon ferrochrome remained high, strongly supporting the price of ferrochrome. In addition, the current tradeable volume of retail ferrochrome was limited, and producers had a certain reluctance to sell, driving up the retail price of ferrochrome. On the supply and demand side, the downstream stainless steel market was on the rise. Coupled with macro tailwinds and the impact of the September-October peak season for consumption, planned production rebounded to a high level and continued to increase. The procurement demand for ferrochrome was yet to be released, pushing up the price of ferrochrome steadily. The market generally held optimistic expectations that the tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome purchased by mainstream stainless steel mills in September would either remain flat or increase, and it was expected that the ferrochrome market would continue to operate generally stable with a slight rise.

In terms of raw materials, on August 14, 2025, the spot price of 40-42% South African powder ore at Tianjin Port was 55-56 yuan/mtu; the price of 40-42% South African raw ore was 49-51 yuan/mtu; the price of 46-48% Zimbabwe chrome concentrate powder was 57.5-58.5 yuan/mtu; the price of 48-50% Zimbabwe chrome concentrate powder ore was 59-60 yuan/mtu; and the price of 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore was 60-61 yuan/mtu, with some prices rising by 0.5 yuan/mtu MoM from the previous trading day. On the futures front, the offer price of 40-42% South African powder ore was $267-275/mt, and the offer price of 48-50% Zimbabwe chrome concentrate powder was $335-345/mt, unchanged MoM.

Within the day, chrome ore prices generally held up well. Zimbabwe chrome ore prices continued to rise, while South African chrome ore prices remained relatively stable. Inquiry and purchasing enthusiasm increased, and trading activity rebounded. On the one hand, the planned production of downstream ferrochrome increased, and there were many procurement and restocking operations. On the other hand, affected by the vehicle traffic control at Tianjin Port from late August to early September, many ferrochrome producers recently purchased chrome ore for early stockpiling, increasing the spot trading volume of chrome ore. In addition, as most of the chrome ore arriving at the port was high-priced, traders had high holding costs. Coupled with the concentrated supply of chrome ore and the reluctance to sell, some traders adopted a wait-and-see attitude and planned to trade after the chrome ore price rose. It is expected that the chrome ore market will remain stable, with attention paid to the subsequent developments of export control policies for chrome ore in South Africa and Zimbabwe.